Considering the safety when aircrafts is taxing in the taxiway, one of the most important is to predict the conflict among aircrafts to avoid the conflict between two aircrafts. This paper presents a time bucket-based method taking the distance between aircrafts as standard. When considering the probability of conflict as standard, we assume that the position of aircraft follows two-dimension normal distribution first. Next step is to calculate the probability of conflict at any given time based on last algorithm. Through calculation shows that longitudinal and latitudinal variance accumulation effect should be considered when some uncertain factors exist in aircrafts’ taxing. Therefore, both the probability of conflict and the distance between aircrafts should be taken as standards in practice to assure the safety of the aircrafts.