主管单位:中华人民共和国工业和信息化部
主办单位:西北工业大学  中国航空学会
地       址:西北工业大学友谊校区航空楼
基于马尔科夫决策过程的星座故障卫星替换策略研究
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1.西北工业大学;2.中国科学院微小卫星创新研究院

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V19

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Research on constellation fault satellite replacement strategy based on Markov decision process
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Northwestern Polytechnical University

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    摘要:

    在星座备份策略的研究中,存在着故障卫星替换策略单一或不能根据星座状态变化选择替换策略的问题。针对这一需求,提出了一种基于马尔科夫决策过程的星座轨道卫星替换策略制定方法。根据在轨工作、在轨备份和地面备份的卫星颗数,对轨道状态进行了划分;在此基础上,结合故障卫星的不同替换策略及对应的订购、储存和惩罚成本,构建了代表预期维护成本的回报函数模型;以最小化各决策周期的维护预期成本为目标,制定序贯的替换策略并以某星座轨道为例进行了应用分析。结果表明:采用地面备份替换故障卫星时,更趋向于补充消耗的备份卫星;平均故障间隔时间越长,预期维护总成本越低,但效果逐渐减弱;惩罚成本的提高会导致替换策略固化,预期维护总成本的上升趋势会极大放缓。该方法能够根据星座轨道的状态对故障卫星的替换方式进行序贯决策,使得分析更为全面,对星座备份策略的制定具有一定价值。

    Abstract:

    With the large-scale constellation, the importance of a single satellite is reduced. When formulating a replacement strategy for faulty satellites, multiple replacement methods and the retention of faulty satellites should be considered. In response to this demand, a method for formulating constellation orbit satellite replacement strategy based on Markov decision process is proposed. The orbital state is divided according to the number of satellites working in orbit, in-orbit backup and ground backup. On this basis, combined with the different replacement strategies of faulty satellites and the corresponding ordering, storage and penalty costs, a return function model representing the expected maintenance cost is constructed. In order to minimize the expected maintenance cost of each decision cycle, a sequential replacement strategy is developed and applied to a constellation orbit. The results show that when the ground backup is used to replace the fault satellite, it tends to supplement the consumed backup satellite. The longer the mean time between failure, the lower the expected total maintenance cost, but the effect is gradually weakened. The increase of penalty cost will lead to the solidification of replacement strategy, and the upward trend of total maintenance cost is expected to be greatly slowed down. This method can make a sequential decision on the replacement mode of the faulty satellite according to the state of the constellation orbit, which makes the analysis more comprehensive and has certain value for the formulation of the constellation spare strategy.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2023-07-04
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-15
  • 录用日期:2023-12-25
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